The Probability of Loss (PoL) is an unbiased, data-based numerical index (0 to 100) that estimates the likelihood that a project will fail or that users will incur losses due to an exploit or incident.
PoL pulls on-chain and off-chain data to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event for a given project and the severity of its consequences. It is a comprehensive crypto risk assessment reduced to a single comparable number.
Yet, as the number itself is a composite of metrics across 6 domains (security, finance, operations, dependency, regulatory, and reputation), apart from the final score, the CORE3 platform shows the sub-scores across exposure categories, as well as specific metrics present or absent.
For exchanges, the methodology evaluates three domains: security, solvency, and transparency. This is the evolution of the CER.live exchange security standard, which has powered the cybersecurity component of CoinGecko's Trust Score since 2019.
29 project categories each get their own tailored assessment criteria. An L2 is not scored the same way as a memecoin or a lending protocol. This replaces the one-size-fits-all approach most risk tools use.
In a nutshell, CORE3 works like this: The lower the PoL, the more evidence exists that a project has invested in risk mitigation. The higher the PoL, the more conditions are missing or undisclosed.